COVID-19 The Thread

I’m currently approaching Gatwick Airport on the way to Vietnam and Malaysia!

Can’t claim back on insurance. Would you cancel?

This is a very fair question. If your insurance company aren’t going to reimburse you, there aren’t many people who could just walk away from the £££’s that get sunk into a long distance holiday. And current government advice is not “do not travel”, so it’s a little harsh to say people following that advice are then being “blasé”.

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Genuine question, isn’t the mortality rate of this actually very low?

My crude understanding is that it is much less deadly than old school influenza?

At around 10% fatality it’s really high. Old school flu is much more widespread and so kills more annually.

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Let the stockpiling of bourbon biscuits and working from home commence!

In all seriousness i am not trying to downplay this, I have travelled a lot to Singapore and Thailand in the past and have cancelled all my work trips for the foreseeable future. My colleagues think I am over reacting, I am not so sure.

Sorry, but that’s a LIE!

Current mortality rate is 0.3 to 0.4%, as people with mild to no symptoms (who then recover without really knowing it) aren’t reporting it.

The latest WHO situation reports are here:

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off to Spain next week…try and stop me…

Not my lie, those were the figures I’d seen previously.

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I’ve got this predicament about my trip to America in 5 weeks, unless the advice changes or Donald builds a wall around the ocean I’m going. I could possibly change my flights and a lot of accommodation has cancellation insurance but it would still be expensive.

As for the 2 races I suspect the 70.3 in Texas will be alright assuming Mrs Jaws doesn’t make her way there. 2-3000 people, mostly from the US probably won’t be a huge risk.

Slightly more nervous about Boston, 40k runners from a lot of places and a lot of supporters in one place might make them nervous. Although I think it will go ahead.

I just need to do some actual training first :roll_eyes:


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Lies, damn lies and statistics.

The death toll in China on 11 Feb - number of people dead vs number of reported infections was 2.4%
The 10% your report is the number of deaths vs number of people recorded as recovered.
The WHO death rate is 0.7% and is based on statistical modeling of the number of people who are infected

Death rate of smokers is more than double non smokers (1.8%)
Death rates from Diabetics was 10 times higher (7.4%)
Death rates from Over 70’s is more than 11 times higher (8%)

Basically if you are a 71 year old diabetic smoker, you may be in trouble


I mean blasé in general, not just about this or travelling specifically, but also Climate Change for example. Was listening to R2 Jeremy Vine earlier, and there were some right sanctimonious poo-pooers on there ref the Climate Rally/Thunberg; the kids inherited the world we currently have, that the Baby Boomers/Gen X created, you buffoons. The end isn’t nigh obviously, but maybe wash your hands before leaving the toilet now eh?! (ffs) The comments on R2 were very reminiscent of someone here; attempting to use attack as a form of defence.

Sorry, I mixed two different issues together there.

my boss has put a bottle of hand sanitiser in each bathroom as someone thought they would make a complaint of some people not washing their hands after taking a dump. If they cant be arsed to wash their hands they are hardly going to use cucumber hand lotion are they FFS


It’s a bug. We lack immunity just now. They are trying to flatten the infection curve so that it is more manageable to be dealt with next winter (Economist) when drugs etc available.

We have plenty of sars, mers etc experience.

Fear mongering is the biggest threat, most people will be ok. Hey Wuhan et all excepted I would travel with cancer. More worried about meds giving me sweats and raised temperature and some thermometer bearing checker unnecessarily quarantining me.

Like Ejc (but if I had the financial means) try and stop me travelling in ways I want to do.

Common sense. Recognise that most people have it mild and survive.

The big issue is the economic effects, associated employment and social effects and further health service strain. Especially if we do close offices and schools for 2 months.

Once we gain a level of immunity (through getting it and recovering or vaccines) or it dies it’s own death, life will go on.

It’s serious don’t get me wrong, but most people are fine.

Given that bugs like this can and do kill humans and there is little we can do in the short term, who is more powerful? Philosophy in real life!

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Funny old thing, there’s a Level 4 Bio Lab in Wuhan :ok_man:

I still can’t believe no-one has referred to the Wuhan Clan :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: (I’ll get my coat!)


there was an extract from a book doing the rounds on farcebook that mentions wuhan and some disease being released intentionally

You can’t do that :face_with_symbols_over_mouth::see_no_evil::scream:

It ignores the people who currently have it and may die, or might recover.

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Point being that you can take 1 data set, from 11 Feb and come up with 3 sets of mortality rates - 10% Overstated as many who have the virus will recover, 2.4% Under reported as some who have the Virus will die, 0.7% WHO estimate based on data modeling, I have no idea of the statistical accuracy, I am guessing that the WHO will have a range for this, and 0.7% is median. The figures most used are the 10%, doom mungers who want to spread fear and panic, and the 0.7% from WHO from governments etc who want to minimise panic.

They owned by Unilever? (Thinking fo my pension…)

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I am reliably informed that the official mortality rate is only based on the numbers of cases closed. You might assume this is number of recoveries vs number of deaths, but I’m given to understand there is also a process of clarifying if the individuals really were infected with said virus and/or if the actual cause of death was the infection rather than they happened to die while infected.

So basically everyone is just guessing right now, same with R0 calculations.

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