COVID-19 The Thread

I found a model on Medium that lets you adjust the R0 number…and some others…to give some nice and scary numbers.

Cases reported / current deaths doesn’t work, and is actually overstated, as more people recover from it than die.

I’ve been playing around with models at work, so I’ve been following how the medical stats gurus are doing their predictions.


It’s a week old and caveats it’s data as such, but there is a clear explanation of how they arrive at a ~1% mortality figure. The infection rate is the big problem, and the fact you are infectious before showing symptoms. The mortality rate is relatively low compared to swine flu, bird flu etc.

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http://worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I left the bike at home this morning and commuted in by bus. I’d forgotten how unhygenic those things are :open_mouth:.

There was a guy on there who was coughing and generally looking really unhealthy. Other passengers were looking at him the same way as folks looked at anyone with a beard and a backpack after the 7/7 bombings. I think the other passengers would have dragged him off the bus at the next stop if anyone had dared get within a metre of him :rofl:

Most of us on here are probably lucky enough to be in jobs that will pay us in full if we have to take time out for sickness. It must be difficult if you’re on a zero-hours contract and if you don’t work you don’t get paid and can’t pay the rent.

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my other half and I were just discussing this… IF there is a real national emergency, with nationally schools getting shut and public transport being stopped, then there are a lot of people who will be in serious financial trouble within a week or two, not months, and not just those on zero hours contracts… we could quickly see some huge social problems where the financial issues outweigh the health ones… how do you feed a million people who don’t have any money at all, not even enough for a loaf of bread, let alone enough for an online food delivery or a pantry full of emergency supplies?.. who will stop them from pillaging shut supermarkets when they are desperate and their kids are crying because they’re hungry?.. how will the utilities, who operate on single digit margins, cope when a million people stop paying their gas bill, yet still hav to pay their suppliers?.. what would be the response to a million rent or mortgage payments being missed on cash flow into the financial services sector and their ability to release money to pensions etc?.. ths may all be a bit ‘scaremonger-y’, but it doesn’t take much of a leap to see some really really significant problems.

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I think I’m sick.

Both kids woke up with blocked sinuses. About 10:30 I suddenly developed a cough.

I should start weeping blood by midnight.

#gameoverman

Oh well, you had a good run :skull:

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MarkieR had a mate with that. RIP

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It’s annoying when you get it in time for the weekend, or maybe not if you are self employed.

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I’ve had a cough and a chest infection for about 10 days…I’ve taken to using public transport a lot lately… :slight_smile:

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Patient 0.

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Not sure about that.

Epitaph: “He might’ve gone sub 4 at Brighton”

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Apparently Paris half marathon tomorrow has been cancelled with less than 24 hours notice, a lad from our club was supposed to be doing it.

They are blaming Covid.

Jeff

WTS Abu Dhabi next weekend now postponed.

Sounds like a lot of big events across France are being cancelled, the marathon will be about 6 weeks, wonder if they’ll start closing museums.

Read online that France has banned any event with more than 5000 participants. How that affects sporting events with high attendances (like football, 6 nations, etc), remains to be seen

Think Switzerland have done the same with 1000 people

Things will really get violent if the stories about pets getting/transmitting CV turn out to be true. Can you imagine the scenario where people are forced to give up their pets for slaughter?

What’s this? I havent heard anything about that?

No one is taking my doggo, they’ll have to go through me and they might find that difficult.

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