Middle East

Oh poop.

Yeah but what Iran says it will do vs what they are capable of and actually will do are very different.

What are they going to do, try a bombing run in a couple of their decrepit F14s that hardly work. That will get far againt the Israeli Air Force.

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Allegedly Iran…

  1. Is handy with drones. These can take down ships, destroy infrastructure etc.

  2. Has some exceedingly well trained special forces that are highly effective.

Iran is pretty good at two things…

finding a (not so) good reason for fighting everyone…

keeping its population suppressed…

and (it the form of a monthy python sketch)…stirring up sh1t such as is being played out in gaza right now…

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Not just handy with drones but happy to sell them to Russia etc

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Iran & Russia are operating on the rivet I suspect.

Tbh I’m not sure too many people would leap to Iran’s aid if they got thwacked. Most of the ME hate them; Russia would probably threaten to nuke people again, but nothing else.

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It’s a shame Netanyahu hasn’t been contrite about the thousands of innocent Palestinian civilians killed ‘by accident’. Just western aid workers.

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I suppose every Palestinian is a potential terrorist in his eyes.

Women cook food for terrorists so they’re fair game
Children grow up to be terrorists

It’s disgraceful whichever way you look at it.

Still, there have been demonstrations against him so maybe the political tide inside Israel is turning?

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Is the tide turning for better or worse? :man_shrugging:

However longer it takes for Gaza to reach a peaceful settlement, it’s going to take a long time and cost a lot of money to rebuild the place

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Totally agree with your sentiment Whisk.

Another thought….

  1. Iran already allegedly supply drones to Russia.
  2. Russia allegedly uses these drones in Ukraine.
  3. Iran might choose to supply more drones to a Russia, to use in Ukraine, to divert the supply of 6 inch shells away from Israel (there is a shortage).

So, with the law of unintended consequences, Israel might (if indeed it is responsible for the Consulate destruction), have just shot itself in the foot.

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I thought it was well established that Russia was using Iranian-made drones against Ukraine :man_shrugging:

ETA - maybe an alternative scenario is that Israel takes out the facility that makes the suicide drones, striking a blow against its big enemy and helping Ukraine :roll_eyes:

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Indeed. But such a direct military strike inside Iran, might awaken untold anger.

Even with Stuxnet it was done subtly and quietly (until it got out and courses were taught about it by Harvard?)

I am sort of glad that I no longer invest time in scenario analysis as these developments might have kept me busy.

It wouldn’t be the first time that Israel had bombed targets in Iran.

Iran is already attacking Israel by supporting Hamas and Hezbolah and they’re attacking western shipping through the Huthi rebels in Yemen.

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I did not know that Whisk, thank you.

there has been a long history of it…GCHQ uses the information to brief the chiefs and calculate the chances of WW3…

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Thank you for that explanation ejc. You will understand why that tickles me. I spent the best part of a decade on that!

Are you aware of any U.K. organisation (that you can mention without breaking the law) that looks further ahead? Just now, while my interest is in locating the positioning of Fastmovers, I have a remaining niggle about the period leading to c2047 and China. Just curious if my thoughts on that point in time re global affairs are also being worked on by anybody.

which makes it surprising that you did not know…

UK analysts contribute toward the work of the Stimson Centre

Thank you ejc

Near the bottom it notes that Iran has a “massive stockpile” of ballistic weapons that it could direct towards US bases in six gulf states.

So the question is: would Iran directly target US military facilities? Given the history, I think that, if pushed, they might. Though it would obviously be a brave thing to do.

Though it is pleasing to read that Iran are prompting for no escalation - you hit us - we hit you - thats the end of it. Israel however seems to want to retaliate, which would simply likely provoke a further Iranian response.

:rofl:

Edited to add: This stuff just didn’t happen in isolation…