Politics

Is that the latest possible date? Assuming the election is called on the 5th anniversary of the last one?

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28th Jan is the latest it can be held

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I’m going to say 6th or 13th June. Given the discussions today, June elections must be a strong theme in Whitehall at the mo.

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If Charles kicks it after it’s been announced, there’s an automatic 14 days delay, plus another week at the discretion of the new monarch, so with an appropriately timed death it can be delayed past the 28th Jan.

In fact it can go later, with successive deaths of monarchs, but I think Rishi is unlikely to kill a second time.

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:thinking: Times radio now starting to mutter about a June election.

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Not convinced. The April inflation figures arent out till 22nd May. They must be banking on the energy price cap bringing this down massively and they will want to capitalise on that. Thats too late to call a June election.

If it does fall sharply maybe BoE cut rates as well.

I reckon an August/September election is the aim. Inflation down, rates cut, and some money found down the back of the sofa for a tax cut.

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An August election?

And have to spend their long summer holiday campaigning? :roll_eyes:

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Hadnt considered that. Call it any earlier though and it will be the longest holiday most of them have ever had.

To be honest for the Conservatives it doesnt really matter. They wont win. The economy is stale at best, was in recession, the incumbent never wins in that situation.

There is really nothing that can save them. So we get a stuffed shirt for a PM for the next 5. Im no Sunack fan but I really dont like Starmmer.

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The feedback we’re getting is that the June date is just internal Tory posturing. Sunak is fighting in all directions, the electorate, Labour and Tory rebels and there’s a lot going on behind the scenes just now. I also agree with @Whisk. A summer election is very unlikely because of holidays. This election is likely to have a low turnout anyway and holding it in summer would lower it further. Ultimately no one knows the date beyond a very small number of people. My money is still on Autumn unless there’s a big shift in polling figures.

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If I was Tory I’d go for the same day as the US presidential election and hope the electorate get confused between Starmer and Trump, as they both have the same weird hair that never moves or changes.

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Forecasts are pretty consistent in that it’s going to be back to normal for inflation in the near future.

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More pessimistic about interest rates coming down much this year now though.

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In a very carefully orchestrated scenario, 54 MPs write to the 1922 committee, there is a leadership election and Boris wins, he calls for a GE 25 days later - hopefully during this time he can’t screw it up or say anything too stupid. Conservatives say “Brexit” alot and run a campaign based on being more anti europe and anti immigrant that they are today, Conservatives are elected on a wave of xenephobia and nostalgia for Boris

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The worrying thing is that might work. Lord Bojo.

Wonder how Cameron would feel working for him? (Given what seems like a long term power battle between the two of them).

Then, worst case scenario, and say an Iranian ship sinks a British ship (I watched a recent encounter on YouTube, where ultimately the Iranian ship backed off saying that our navy chaps could not be understood as their English wasn’t good), war breaks out, and we have Boris as a wartime PM. He would love it given his love of Churchill.

I think he’s still too divisive; he might pursuade some potential Reform voters, but I think too many centre right voters have had enough.

Women love him still… so we’re in the wrong place…

Boris is still seen as “the anti establishment pro the people” guy. His quirkiness is liked. I know working folk who you would never expect to vote Tory, who are great Boris voters. He “Will sort them out, etc”.

While I suspect he would have a tough time in the Red Wall/now Blue Tory seats, as they have been hurting so much, down in the South he could do well amongst people you might expect to vote Labour.

While I don’t speak to that many people, a decent chunk voted for, and likely would vote for Boris. (And it is a vote for Boris not for the Conservatives).

Ask your tradesmen and car mechanics. You might be surprised. So if the May elections go badly, Lord Bojo might happen quickly, followed by a giveaway budget.

The fear of losing power makes otherwise sensible people make sub optimal decisions. Such is the power of darkness. It’s just a pity that so many wise conservative heads were burnt on the bonfire of Brexit.

Boris was really undone by partygate. There was no coming back from that even for a greased piglet like Boris.

There is no public desire for Starmer, just to get rid of the Tories.

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Yeah, the press went after Boris with a vengeance, even though he barely featured in any parties himself.

Contrast that with the almost reverential treatment of the ginger whinger by the BBC today and it’s clear where their preferences are.

I’ve always said that left wingers hold their own politicians to a lower standard than they do the conservatives. If this was a senior Tory, they’d be howling from the rooftops.

Anyway, my money’s on an October election and I suspect I’ll only vote if one of the parties promises something properly substantial for the north.
It’s quicker for me to travel 200 miles to London by train (2:10 hours) than Leeds which is 80 (3 hrs min)

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Contrast with the amount of coverage Willy Wragg is getting in the right wing press which is extraordinarily low. To your point, if a labour politician had done the same the Daily Mail would be calling for their lynching

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