Roth 2021 bike course was 168km (happy to be corrected!!!) so quite short.
Like 20 minutes.
I then started looking back through the M50 results over the years.
2015 - slow year. Nobody under 9hrs.
2016 - Quick. 9:03 to 9:09 for the podium. Jurgen Zack was 3rd.
2017 - Slow. 9:12 to 9:30. That 9:30 swam 1:11
2018 - Slow. 9:22 to 9:37. 2nd place swam a 1:11
2019 - Quick. 9:07 to 9:11. No >1:10 swimmers went under 9:40.
What does that tell us?
That even with massive equipment changes making things easier, M50 athletes still struggle to dip under 9hrs at Roth.
Even ones who’ve won multiple Ironmans and Top 10 Kona finishes.
When i first raced i was told, ride the first 50miles like you are riding to the event. A good way to say if it feels easy, it probably still isn’t easy enough
Too an extent I agree as only a few of us find that stuff really interesting. But many here have been at this for a fair few years and still don’t understnad it. That isn’t a dig at all as you clearly don’t need to. Look at the GTN video on cadence, utter bollocks from an ex phys language perspective and possibly makes it more confusing. They could have done a video explaining it clearly or alternatively leave the ex. phys jargon out of it and discuss it in languaage everyone understands. But tiring your aerobic with high cadence and your muscles with low cadence over 180km is Next they’ll mention cardio
On topic. What I take from @Hammerer and @Chriswim is that swimming the 4km in training at sub-60 min pace, the RPE should be thought of in the context of a 9 hour session not a 90 min swim with a 4km set at IM pace.
Im surprised people still dont understand the two thresholds, especially with the popularity “80/20”, or what some coaches know as “what we have always done without a catchy name” . There’s also confusion even in coach ed , where they really oversimplify stuff and just add even more confusion. I remember my L2 talked about anaerobic is an effort under 2mins, which is essentially true but its far more complicated than that and whilst they dont have 4 years to teach your Ex Phys , in my mind making stuff too simple only adds to the confusion and can also result in a Dunning Kruger coach talking out of his arse (Ive done it myself enough )
Absolutely. I think the latter part sometimes get thrown at Seiler, which I think is unfair as he has always stated that his view comes from examining data of elite endurance athletes, predominantly Nordic skiers. Whereas someone like Fitzgerald is always likely to jump on a bandwagon (IMO).
Seiler for me is what a scientist does, take lots of evidence and bases a theory on it. I like his social pages as there’s lots of info he shares, and for me that’s what good coaches should do, share / guide so they can be informed by multiple sources when making a decision. Fitzgerald for me is the book writer, look at me type. Seiler does get some critics but I suppose you will when you are putting yourself out there.
With you on that 100%. I remember being pointed to Fitzgerald when he was writing a blog on trying to qualify for Boston. He had a repeating pattern of injury, rehab, back running, wow I am really progressing, injury, and so on.
I saw no benefit in reading on.
Seiler doesn’t pretend like he invented anything,.merely observed and documented.
If you really want to down a rabbit hole (albeit quite an amusing one) search for anything about polarised training Vs sweet spot with Coggan, Liversidge or Trev involved on ST. They properly went at it to the point of being abusive at times, at least two of them were kicked off in the end, probably around 2019.
My key sessions ahead of Roth
Have the ability to run a 2:45 marathon… I don’t think that I will actually run a 2:45 marathon as it will take too much out of my training, but be confident that I can run a 2:45 marathon - will probably be a marathon running the first half in 1:35 and second half in 1:20
On the bike, riding outdoors, a 3h 280w would be a good target, possibly 285w, something like 125km. Another possible target would be a 4hour 100mile TT
Swimming, realistically I would be happy with 20 x 100 off 1:50, but I would love to do it off 1:45. Last night I did 12 x 100 swimming 1:37s with 30s RI then 3 x 200 off 4 mins
Roth bike course is 178km, so always 2km short. Last year, the course was shortend by 10km, but elevation remained the same as regular course, general view was around 15-20mins faster for good AG
I need to take 15 off the swim to stand any chance of Sub 9, I then need to find another 15 on the run and bike, which is a pretty big ask. 5 mins off the bike and 10 off the run… obviously temperature dependent
So I’d start with a mile on the track and progress from there. Half marathons really don’t take a lot out of you, so probably aim to do a spring one (April) in under 79 minutes.
Next they’ll mention cardio
. There’s also confusion even in coach ed , where they really oversimplify stuff and just add even more confusion. I remember my L2 talked about anaerobic is an effort under 2mins, which is essentially true but its far more complicated than that and whilst they dont have 4 years to teach your Ex Phys , in my mind making stuff too simple only adds to the confusion and can also result in a Dunning Kruger coach talking out of his arse (Ive done it myself enough 
