I’ve seen Skipper ride a 100 mile TT in 3:25 ish and go straight into 10 mile run sub 6mm.
He didn’t run off his 325 mile 12 hr TT though😃, when I asked him grumbled something about ‘never doing it again’…
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That’s the thing Ironman pace is steady, if you can’t do 4.5 hours at proposed pace 2-4 times before race day, I don’t see how you can do it on race day after a swim and for a lot longer . It goes back to the overbiking issues. If you want a 4.45 bike that is 38kph and that must feel easy for much of the ride, especially if you are hoping to run sub 7min miles for just over 3hrs.
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The only thing is that 38kph in more like 33kph average on normal roads and routes where you have to take into account junctions other road user interuptions etc, lower quality surfaces (needed to not be too busy with cars etc.) less aero from carrying all your own fluids rather than aid stations etc.
But otherwise absolutely, you need those race watts being easy, it’ll just be a bit less distance.
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Last year I did a 100km TT ride in 2h18m, 43.5kph avg, think it was around 295w… I wasn’t quite able to hold 300w. The ride was 3 laps of a 34km out and back. about 150m elevation each lap. Had a nasty head wind for 10km each lap. I was riding solo so no drafting… I was pretty tired by the end, however, 120km in 3 hours is easily achievable. When I look back, this was certainly one of my key sessions
Currently too cold, but will give this a go when it warms up. I think that fuelling will be the key to running 21k in Sub 1:30
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Again the run distance is very dependent on conditions, but try to replicate race as best as possible and make allowances for busier sections, roads etc.
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This is what I was (badly) suggesting. Race effort doable, but not those distances.
Obviously certainly not for me, given I think I’ll be around 5:10 bike, but even as a general argument.
Thats one reason I prefer simulation on the trainer rather than on the road, more accurate intensity. Of course there are other elements missing but in terms of asking the question “am I physically ready?” I think it’s good.
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I’ll just reiterate my thoughts on goal times again. I learned that if you want a high chance of going sub 10 on race day, you should realistically aim be in 9:30 shape.
So for sub 9, you’re probably looking at 8:40 shape.
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Completely agree for anyone who sets hard time goals and sees that as the priority.
For me, I think my best case scenario if training goes perfectly is being in potential 8:55 shape come race day, which could easily be 9:15 whilst still having a decent race.
Difference to some other time based goals is that I certainly wouldn’t be disappointed with that. It’s a huge stretch goal, not an expectation or requirement for validation.
In contrast I’ve definitely set time goals before whilst swimming and felt like a failure when (repeatedly) missing them.
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At least with swimming goals there are less environmental variables to affect performance. Time based goals in triathlon are invariably a fools errand. You should have an idea I need 8.50 to be in with a chance of winning my AG and train for that but I wonder how many people DNF from a potentially decent position because they aren’t hitting a goal. Mentally they lose it. Take IMW2017 when biblical conditions hit, or Frankfurt when it was hotter than the sun.
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I fully agree with @Hammerer and @Chriswim
9 hours is an ambition, Last year in Roth, conditions were almost perfect, I executed the race almost perfectly, I don’t even think that I swam badly, it was what I was capable of on the day. Realistically I would need to take 25 minutes off that time to go sub 9 hours, which is a massive reduction, but not impossible. Given the circumstances of ageing up this year at the same time as having 6 months Gardening leave is a pretty unique opportunity for some special results
Would I be upset if I did a 9h25m on that day? absolutely not. My goal is to train with a 9hr target in mind, but what happens on the day is what it is. A podium position would be even better, but that just depends who turns up on the day
I have already achieved far more in triathlons than I ever thought would be possible, I really don’t have anything left to prove, however, a great result in Roth and/or Kona would really be the icing on th cake.
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IMW2017, yeah, when you get to the 1st and 2nd aid station on the bike and people are already in space blankets and crying, you need to adjust those goals as you go. I adjusted mine to ‘survival’ 
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I watched from the beach 
although as the day wore on I was mildly less disappointed 
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First “key session” done. 110km Endurance race on Zwift, I finished in 2:54, so extended for an extra 6 mins
Average Power 265w, Normalised Power 278w
I held it all together really well for 2h30m, then found I had to back off a bit. Probably a bit low on hydration and fueling.
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I didnt appreciate how hard that session would be
8 laps of Harrogate circuit reverse with 2000m climbing. Wasnt a nice steady power, more like intervals for 3 hours
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Turn down the in game resistance change thing?
That would have been sensible… i had it at 50%. However, was riding in a group of 8, surging on the climbs, recovering in descents and flats
This is a great discussion. Best of luck to the sub-9-attempters…
I am tempted to do one more iron distance, a flat one this time, with no agenda other than to maximise (ie minimise) the finishing time. I’d love to go back to Kona but there are no guarantees there at all. Trying only to do a fast time means things are much more down to me and what I can control.
My foot has been injured for pretty much 2 years but I am starting to be able to run a bit now, I need a few more weeks to get confidence in it.
I have spent a lot of time in 2020 and 2022 thinking about how to go faster and I’d love the chance to implement all the things I came up with, and to do a really effective build-up.
I wondered how fast I might be able to go. I reckon somewhere between 8:59(!) - 9:25.
I wondered where I would do it. Barcelona? Nah sold out. Estonia? Maybe, but the travel is a hassle and uncertain.
Outlaw…? Could be…
This discussion may well tempt me to go for it…
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There was discussion about this earlier in the thread. Copenhagen is interesting as a fast course and more honest than the Barcelona draft fest
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A sub 9 at the Outlaw would be a very decent outing; only 6 solos made it last year (and it was a pretty decent day conditions wise).