Lanza will probably be pretty windy…
So…I rode a 25TT with exactly the same kit as I’ll be wearing on race day, the road surface for the 25TT was also garbage (getting thrown about everywhere with 120psi on the pitted roads)
Same wheels, same non-flappy kit, same helmet and shoes etc.
25TT was quite windy - it hailed and rained and was sunny.
All of this is tracked in the BBS data - which is nice.
I then used the data from that to predict a split for the Cotswold 113 NEW Course (not the post-badger course, but the one that 89.7km)…
…it is telling me I can ride 2:12:38 ???
WTAF???
There is not a cats chance in hell I can ride a 90km HIM bike leg at 40+km/h.
What other food does BBS need to correct this?
(My previous mock-up, without race data, had me going at 2:30:xx - which was far more believable)
I gave it a second helping of ride information - I rode 89.2km at 0.83 in full race kit back in April, directly after swimming 1.9km in the pool at race pace. So I think that’s a better indicator than a 25TT?
It is now telling me 2:26:23, based on an IF of 0.82 and all other things being equal.
Both rides were in the same kit and on the same roads (I live on the local time trial routes)
I’ve got a TSS of 149-161 for the two rides.
Here is the link to the slower version (I only have a free account):
Did you factor in the awful road surfaces for 113 course? Is there a “moon surface” setting? 
Apparently you can apply the ‘washboard’ setting 
Although there are a few kms of resurfaced road now, along by the hotels. Totals about 8km of the event (2km stretch x 4). Of course, the coming winter will probably wreck it again 
So what are you going for, a split time, or a power output?
Power. Otherwise those pedals are just an expensive speedo.
If it’s windy and raining, then aiming for a 2:26-2:32 is futile.
As much as I’d like to hit a time, it’s not the goal.
2016 was biblical; fortunately not too cold though. We were dodging huge puddles on the run up into the finish chute each lap (the last 200m or so is very bumpy)
Even though i’m not as old as you relics, with your vet wars - i do feel like i’m missing out somehow!
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I’m a decade younger that that old man
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ah yes - i admit i’d mixed up with the m45 showdown in Hamburg.
I did do the cotswold 113 a few years ago though and really enjoyed it. Would like to go back at some point.
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Yeah, pretty sure there are at least four of us here, entered for M45 at Hamburg!
52 posts, and none of you mentioned that it’s actually how fast you’re going to run, that really influences the bike split. If you’re a 4 hour marathoner, it’s quite a bit different to a 3 hour marathoner. The aim is to spread out your total energy budget over the duration, biased to run if you can of course (both since it’s last and 'cos you get more benefit going a bit harder without the aero penalty) but having 10% less (3hr vs 4hr marathon) time will allow you to go harder on the bike.
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Except of course, hardly anyone is a 3h Ironman runner
A good mantra is ‘what can I do now on the bike that will help me on the run’
Stop, throw the bike in a hedge, and take a dump.
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We’re too wise and knowledgable to need to state it, but it’s implied in Stenard’s chart post. We’re trying to get the best bike without impacting the run.
Ironman DQ, unless there is a portaloo next to hedge
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How do you compare and analyse the race plan to actual the race day?
I’ve tried the bbs race analyser but had to raise a support ticket as it estimates my cda to be that of a world class time triallist 
I don’t want to get completely stato with it, just see if I was putting out too little power and if it was too little at the start or across the ride, or if there was something else I did wrong.
That’s the problem. You can’t as far as I’m aware. It would certainly be nice to be able to do that.
Even in their own blogs, they do it in a rather crude way.
The excessive wind in Lanza will probably impact that. I know I had similar in Bahrain, and just ignored the output cda. I put that down to the significant benefit from riding alongside fast moving traffic.
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with a 2:30 bike split and 85% IF I am in the box for “proven strong half ironman runners only”… I guess this is probably right
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At IMCH I put in 0.675 IF and got 6:30 and 298 TSS…After years, I’m finally on the chart!
That felt like ‘going hard’ to me, so I’m going to stick with ‘go hard on the bike’ until I have a run worth protecting.
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