PEOPLES* LET’S NOT SPECULATE - THE 4TH JULY WILL PROVIDE THE ANSWERS 
- see what I did there
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I feel attacked
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Normalised.
Average is ~205W, which probably makes a lot more sense 
All of the hills at Bolton.
I’m not smashing the hills at all, just spinning up them in my 34-27 yesterday (tried out the 11-27, that’s a big no! Sticking with the 12-30)
My century flat ride was 213/217, for 286TSS, at 0.75IF.
So that’d still put me at >300TSS.
As Jim has said, the TSS scores mean nothing if you don’t have an FTP figure that equates to the normal curve on which the model is based.
I think Matt’s comment probably sums up where I am, especially when he puts his target number down given his FTP up around the 350 mark. The fact you can hold those numbers in training, and you’ve come to the target from what you have done rather than what you think you can do, just means you’re seemingly in a really strong place.
Although it also does now make a lot more sense if your AP target is ~205, meaning you’re thinking of a VI >1.12. All your references to VI’s of 1.02 made me think you were planning that at Bolton too (which I acknowledge now on reflection is probably very sub-optimal on that course and my own misinterpretation)
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Yeah, that’s my bad (RE/ VI)
If I ride from my front door, I string together all of the local J courses.
There’s maybe three right turns and two sets of lights.
For 100 miles.
The rest is either roundabouts or left turns.
As it’s flat, I like to be at 1.02.
Bolton is a different beast.
VI of 1.2 will be about right.
Some of it you’re just freewheeling for ages at 50-60kmh.
It’s ace!
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Ooh, that would probably correspond with the bit through Teguise to Mirador de Haria and Mirador del Rio. Better make sure you stay on top of that!
At least the food stop is just after Teguise these days and not after the switchback climb
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That makes more sense! You always used to see people trying to empty their musettes as they started the hairpin descent 
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Happy to share, below are the details from my 2 Times 2 laps back at the beginning of the month. I’m 67kg with an FTP of 288 which was measured beginning of May. I’ve only had a power meter since beginning of May
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Cheers - very similar (the second one spookily so!) to me, but you’re much lighter.
Also, for the TSS, you’ll be looking at 400-450 for the bike on race day, judging by those recces.
Right?
tbh I haven’t looked at what the overall TSS will be. I’m just focusing on power, hr and avoiding peaks and troughs in both as much as possible. If I keep those under control the TSS will be what it’ll be
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Good plan…
In 2019 I planned to come out of the water feeling as if I’d done (almost) nothing, vs previous years when I came out and the heart rate was 170 and it never really came down on the bike to where it needed to be (130-140).
I swam 59 in 2019 and was actually a bit annoyed that it was too fast. 62-63 would have been fine. Still, the heart rate starting the bike was good, so the swim was evidently easy enough. There’s no need to go out hard, especially with the rolling start, I really went ridiculously easy and it seemed the whole race was swimming past me - it’s deceptive, they’re not, and it pays dividends.
Socks on the bike definitely, but no point in running to the bike in socks to get them all mucky and wet, socks and shoes on in T1 onto dried feet for me.
It’s a long bike, no doubt, patience pays dividends. My 20-min power would have been 325-330, was aiming for around 210, and it was 210 until the final third, when it dropped to 200. My VI was decent so I didn’t push the hills much harder than 230. And despite all this, the power did ebb away a little bit in the latter stages. I’d say take it easy - you can recover and make it up if you take it “too easy”, but if you even go a fraction too hard, then it can turn ugly in the run. There are great opportunities to “recover” on the bike, freewheeling downhill, and lifting your backside off the saddle to stop the numbness and keep the blood flowing - I think this is really important to help keep the legs fresh and help maintain power in the latter stages. Mind that Chorley road from the reservoir to town, the surface is often terrible, bumpy (know in advance what you will do if you lose nutrition or a bottle because of bumps), and twice I had to swerve to avoid broken glass. 34-30 is a good gear!
As for that Ironman % of FTP chart - I wish I had never ever seen it, probably a major reason why so many of my Ironmans were a disaster. Different horses and different courses. I could never hold anywhere near what it suggested I should have been able to in an Ironman. So I would be riding at 230 watts and then I’d be walking at best after 13 miles in the marathon, or puking or portalooing or worse… According to that chart, I should have been riding IMUK2019 at 223 watts. That would not have resulted in the KQ. It would have resulted in a DNF probably. I actually rode it at 203 watts NP / 187 watts average, IF 0.65 and VI 1.09. TSS 259 for the bike.
I think it’s far too generic a chart, and far too subjective. I would say that there are some people for whom that chart will be spot on. I would say there are some people who could exceed what it suggests. But I would say a majority of people who follow that chart will under-perform because they bike too hard. Experience (certainly for me anyway) will dictate what number you can ride to…
I thought the run was “enjoyable”, or as much as that’s possible. Queen’s Park was good, the main road was good, the steel band up towards the top were good, the support was good, and town was good. I ran too fast in the first 2-3 miles, like the swim and the bike it is often difficult to keep yourself in check because it feels easy.
The hill in Queen’s Park on lap 3 was the toughest bit of the whole day, I really had to work super hard to get up there and the Red Bull station at the top of the hill had a cooling misty spray, that chilled me badly. But I got going again on the main road and then you know you only have to go up the hill once more and then the finish is pulling you in.
The finish area was brilliant, the way they had each lap looping past with crowds on both sides.
The food in the tent was very poor, but I had a Tailwind recovery drink in the white bag and that was all I needed. Post race was great, around the finish line and a short walk to T2 along the course, past an ice cream van. And the car parks were very close by too.
Crazy that the guy I beat by 5 minutes has done a sub-9. I don’t think I could do sub-9! And crazy also to think that that’s how “slow” the Bolton course actually is - as tough a course as you could imagine.
Hope you have a great race, seems like you’re in good shape, can’t ask more than to be in good shape on the start line and to have a plan that hopefully goes to plan!
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Yeah - that’s why I’ve done so many recce’s 
I know the course inside out and where I need to focus, then where I can relax.
Literally can’t wait for the downhill part from Rivington Pike to Horwich on race day loop 1.
No cars, no traffic, no oncoming vehicles.
It’ll be magical 
@jaylen84 - Cheers. Those numbers are proper impressive 
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I am thinking like you. I can bike with an IF of 65-70%, post a fast time and have the legs for the run. My plan in Lanza is minise loss on swim, nothing spectacular on the bike and pass everyone on the run
My last 4000 swim on Saturday was slow 1h18, however my AHR was 98bpm. Even pushing really hard, my HR doesn’t really get above 155 swimming
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Oh, I agree. My first and only sub10 was in the “left a little on the table” region. But that’s what was making me so surprised by the original IF and TSS figures Poet was suggesting. They are literally off the chart!
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I heard (possibly on here!) that the IMUK2019 winner (Brian Fogarty) did 297 watts and 5:09 (or numbers close to that). I’d love to know what weight he was!
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When you say it like “I am swimming for an hour then riding 112 miles to the start line of a marathon” then it helps to be in the right frame of mind - it really is “all about the bike” but in the opposite sense to how that would conventionally be understood. Best of luck in Lanza, seems like you’re in a good position. Hope it all goes well. You’re right, pass them all on the run, very motivating to be passing people in the final half of the marathon…
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I’m surprised that chart is still, as far as I can see, the only authority on Ironman power relative to FTP, I wonder how many people have found out the hard way that it’s not for them!
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He looks 85kg, but looks are deceiving.
He’s an absolute machine, fair play to the guy 
Just seems like an honest age grouper working hard and getting great results 
The Endurance nation people had another one at the same era, also had expected marathon time in there too for more complete energy pacing thoughts. You really do need to take account of the run though, and tbh unless you’re racing (and risking blowing up) rather than just executing the best you can do on the day, biasing an easier bike is always the safe option, doesn’t lose you much time, and massively reduces the risk of walking.
Alan Couzens had some too I think - says @Poet is allowed by him to do 240w as long as he runs below 3:31.
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