KMD IRONMAN 70.3 European Championship Elsinore

BBS has me 17 mins faster than St Polten, which would be 4:28… so there is hope

I am not taking a Taupo spot as I would end up being single

My gut feeling is that Elsinore will be more competitive than StP. It’s a Championship event, and it will attract a lot of the fast northern Europeans. As the number of 70.3 races has grown in Europe, StP has become a little more diluted from what I can tell; it’s not one of the high-profile 70.3s imho.

You’d also assume that would have a beneficial impact on your run. 17mins less time on the bike is more energy stores to give to the run, all other things being equal.

Agreed. I can’t see me taking it (if it rolled miles), but the fact it’s even something that could transpire has thrown me a little bit, as it was a decision I wasn’t even thinking about.

Going to make the slot allocation ceremony even more of a drawn out process!

Is that 17 mins from BBS purely on the bike?

I’m a little concerned about my run, since StP I have done 3 runs, at pretty slow pace, and legs still feel heavy, quads in particular. I am not sure if it is due to lack of running or lack of recovery, the bike on the other hand seems to be faster than ever

Yes, I loaded a number of rides into BBS and my cda is pretty consistent. I also loaded the forecast wind for Elsinore. BBS predicts an average speed of 39.5 kph and 85% IF, which would be fast, but I did an 80k 36kph ride on Saturday, on road bike, with 1200m elevation and 92% IF.

Maybe you need to back-off the bike a bit, as it sounds like you are going for it. Then maybe the run legs will return?

Yeah, it sounds like you are absolutely hammering it on the bike recently. That by itself is going to deaden the run legs a bit, ignoring the fact it’s maybe retaining some of the latent run fatigue from StP.

That said, your biking is literally insane from what I’m seeing on strava. That 40k in 59mins on a road bike had me rubbing my eyes!

In some ways though, given your 0.85 IF for StP was 263 NP, I’m pretty surprised it’s only predicting you 19 mins or so faster than me. I’m probably looking at 185w based on how feeble my ride legs are at the moment:

If you do ride a low(ish) 2:1X however, there’s not a hope in hell of me being anywhere near you

BBS is giving me an AP of 236W, therefore the IF is wrong. It is taking my FTP from Garmin Connect, and for some reason my Garmin keeps updating my FTP lower, Garmin thinks my FTP is 273W, while TP, calculates my FTP as 301W, at one point it was 313W, but I deleted that as I felt it was too high (taken off a sprint Triathlon result), since then it has settled on 301W.

Whenever I quote IF it is from TP, not Garmin

I was just going by your statement that 0.85 IF was predicting you to be 17mins faster than StP, where 0.85 IF was 263 NP.

So I was assuming you were intending to do roughly 263 NP at Elsinore as well, and that it was this wattage that you were basing your 17min improvement off.

I am hoping that BBS is overestimating my time as it thinks my FTP is lower… at any rate, I would be delighted with a 2:13 bike time.

I’m not sure what you mean? When you populate your race plan, it will tell you what NP (and AP) it is assuming on the right. I was presuming you had set it to be the 263NP (being the 0.85 IF you stated for StP)?

I agree that if you have just set it to work off an IF number, and your FTP is set wrong, then it will come out with the wrong target NP compared to reality, but from memory you can also just set a target NP rather than a target IF. Either way, you can then use the time analysis tab to just slide the power number to whatever you want it to be, and it will then spit out your revised time.

As for FTP on BBS, you just set it on the “my profile” page. It’s not coming from Garmin Connect. If it was clever, it would come from Training Peaks, given they’re both owned by the same company (and you have to link your TP account to BBS to get the 50% discount for being a premium TP subscriber). But you have to manually enter it.

It’s now a Challenge race from 2020.
Wanda have ditched it

Ah yes. Pity. Such an awesome bike course. Hopefully it will keep going.

Its more Dumb and Smarter than I gave it credit for. As you say FTP is set manually, I must have done this some time way back in the past. However, when it created the prediction for Elsinore, I must have used 240W as target power, as my predicted NP is 240W, AP is 236W, this compares with AP of 239W and NP of 253W at StP

So BBS predicts a time of 2h13m at a slightly lower intensity than StP (About 80% IF), when I update my power to the same at StP it gives me a prediction of 2:10.

I did upgrate to premium last month using the TP discount

That marathon is probably still lurking in those run legs as well MS! Without full recovery, and training and racing through, it doesn’t suprirse me that you’ve lost a bit of the zip.

I would agree with the others and back off the bike a tad for a week or so (if you have capacity to do so) and i think the spring will come back into your step.

If you are ‘blindly’ following TP, that will tell you that your TSB is positive, even though you are fried i.e. good taper high TSB>Race>positive TSB still, which masks how fatigued you are. My TSB is well over +0 at the moment, despite my legs being wrecked after the HIM on Sunday. You can’t just accumulate huge +TSB and ride the crest - they are just numbers on the Internet, listen to your body :slightly_smiling_face:

Something is tallying :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
(either the 5 or the 6 is no doubt a typo)

253 is the correct NP - same on both TP and Garmin
85% IF is from TP, Garmin has it as 92.6%
I have now set my FTP on my Garmin and BBS to 298W which is what TP is showing, so all aligned