I’m still early 30s, so I have a chance…if only kids, mortgage, work, life didn’t get in the way of the important stuff like tri 
I got into endurance late (I was fat lad at the back in secondary school), late meaning in my 20s but already had kids. I’m just here ticking over until my 40’s!
edit: I’m only really here for the medal/tshirts/tattoos delete as appropriate
A little update, last weeks bike only effort has given me some confidence.
I think my FTP will rise when I test it again, but at the moment that was a 97.5% effort so unlikely Id run well off it.
I was aiming at Eastbourne tri which would have been this weekend, and I have another simulation to test against, IMVR11.
My pulled calf is still tight though and Im still limping around the house so its probably another bike-only, so either way Ill aim to go 90% or five minutes slower, and see what that nets me.
That’s a strong ride @joex. My own speed on that course is pretty close to what I can do outdoors. I would say that an OD bike, on a flat non technical course you would finish within a couple of minutes of that time
All depends how aero you are…
Deva Olympic back in the day a guy called Andy White regulary went sub hour…
There were a few small hills on that course, his ftp was lower than mine at the time I’ll guess… but he was 9 stone and aero AF.
I think I went about 1:10 for a pretty flat 40K course last year, but that was on a road bike and no skinsuit or fast wheels etc., similar kind of wattage IIRC. I also did have to run afterwards, and swim before.
So, assuming a flat decent course etc. on a tri bike I’d hope it might get you about 65 minutes at least, just depends if you can run after that.
Yeah I “only” need 1h05-10 so hopefully I can back off a bit for the other two legs.
I did bike and bar-only lifting today which was fine, did half the Boulder 70.3 course (45.3km +250m) at 0.69IF for 1h20 so Im thinking a 0.85 target should be around 1h05 and not kill me.
But a fiteen minute walk/jog this afternoon 
…theres no chance Im running hard this weekend so just the bike test again.
Its recovery week and Im due a RAMP on Monday too so more reasons not to overdo it this weekend.
My best and last Oly was 2:31:02. Gutted coz I had a panic attack in the swim for some reason and had to let everyone go. Thought I’d be out of the water in top 20 and was 171st 
overall, 73rd in my wave!
Swim - 31:32 - lost 5 minutes here.
T1 - 2:32
Bike - 1:12:38
T2 - 1:02
Run - 43:19
Happy with the bike as it is a 6 lapper with 4 roundabouts, 1 x 180deg turn and a no-overtaking bridge. All laps within 35 seconds of each other.
Yeah, I’d agree with the others that you’d easily get within your 1:05-1:10 target. I know you’re slightly bigger than me, but if you find a fast course, then that kind of power should equate to a pretty speedy time.
As an example, this was one of my worst rides at Oly level (it was 7 days after Mallorca 70.3), but is a good example of a course bang on 40k. Also included 4 dead turns, so despite being closed roads, that hurt speed.
Then two weeks later, with rougher roads and lumpy terrain. Again, similar (poor) power.
This was my stupid phase where on five consecutive weekends I did a sprint tri, an overseas 70.3, an oly, 2 days at Tour of Wessex, and then another oly. Unsurprisingly, I got ill after that.
Anywhere near 250w, on something remotely resembling a fast course, and you’ll easily be getting towards the hour mark I reckon.
Love to try for this next year. Best 2016 Liverpool 2.38. At a very svelte 16 stone! (And 2nd year of Tri at 41). 23.xx, 1.12xx, 54.xx. Have no idea where I failed this challenge really! Anyway, swim was the only straight swim I’ve ever managed, usually I’m like the sprinter in the “ big train” sketch show (managed to swim 4500m in IM wales after finding extra buoys and indeed, er ,boats I wanted to visit…) so was deffo too fast for normal. Bike was on the money really, for somebody with a too small road bike (CdA of about oooh, 0.7) but my ramp test FTP was 330 last year (and that’s earned for life , right, like Zwift badges?) so I would hope with a decent fit on my P3 I should be able to beat that. Which leaves the low hanging fruit. Or should I say, the need to eat low hanging fruit rather than low hanging crisps. Doddle. Ahem.
I just looked at my best ever 25TT and I pushed 259w for a 1:03:39.
It is a terrible course (J2/9), bit lumpy with poor road surfaces but I still think it means I was too heavy and/or aero as a wardrobe.
@Poet will know the course well so may be able to share course numbers. I didn’t think I’d ever get near 1hr off those numbers in on Oly.
Yeah - it’s an awful course!
I ran an 18 minute 5km in the morning.
Went home, feet up, then rode down there.
Managed a 1:00:41 (1s per km off!)
Off 267W.
I was 80kg at the time.
So the 10w makes a difference and I was about 85kg.
Maybe my position isn’t THAT bad!
Im still trying to figure out how to validate with a <2h30 result without racing, because I want to tick the box and mentally move on to half and full training.
Aug 8/9 would have been London Tri, so Ill see an actual result next July, assuming the plague has subsided.
Options;
IMVR
3k run/40k on rouvy/10k run
Pros: Easiest to organise, can go full bore on the bike
Cons: Transition much faster than reality, no swim
Split virtual race
Swim in a lake, drive home, ride on rouvy, run outside
Pros: Has a swim, can go hard on the bike
Cons: Transition +30mins driving home
Self supported tri
Swim in a lake, cycle 40km route home, run
Pros: Has swim, and real bike
Cons: Cant go full bore on bike, danger on open roads, interupted by traffic etc
I suspect Ill need to do two and blend the results.
Aren’t the UK planning some OD races this year?
I have IM Barcelona in October, so I have to assume thats going ahead. I can do an olympic race sim Aug 8/9 at the end of my build phase as I had planned to, and maybe one before then when my calf is better and I can fit it into my training plan.
If the cycle home from the lake really isn’t conducive to race speed I think I’d mix the two and swim in the lake, drive home then do outdoor bike/run brick on the best course you can create. However accurate virtual courses are I still don’t think I’d count one for something like you’re planning. The swim doesn’t impact your bike/run that much so the long transition isn’t that much of an advantage as long as the bike/run are a brick and you adjust for missed T1.
plus you’ve got your 1-5% race edge that you’ll be missing. Nothing is the same as pinning a number on and chasing the people in front of you down.
I’d have thought the first run should be 5k rather than 3k?
London suburbs just isnt shorter course race compatible although some commuters may think otherwise 
Theres a couple of A roads I might be able to get up to speed on, but getting near home trying to hold 40kph and aero on a TT is quite a funny idea. If I could basically ignore the transition times and include in them cycling to a safe place, maybe.
IMVR picked the distances, and although 3k is shorter in time I suspect it impacts the bike/run more closely to a 1500m swim than a 5k would. I already think the first run scuppers my third leg performance! 
