Okay if I’d had any balls I would’ve started this thread when I set the 2021 goal, but I don’t and race day is seven weeks away, I hope, October, crap, 3rd.
From CoachCox, IM Barcelona 2019, Average m45-49
My performance from 2020
Half: 2h37 virtual bike 203W, Run 2h10
Full: swim 1h09, 5h44m Virtual bike 176Np/157ap, Run 5h59
Full: 1h06 swim, 6h37 bike 167np/146ap, Run 6h30
Full: 1h09 swim, 8h31 bike 156np/135ap, Run 5h39
In 2021 I’ve only done 2x Olympic and a sprint, but both I think indicate I’ve improved a bit all-round and reflect the my average training week is up by a couple of hours on 2020 and stellar by comparison to 2019 and before. 241np/242ap at the London olympic and I ran comfortably/easily until the sprint finish.
So, working backwards this is going to be all about the run and another 6hr marathon ain’t going to cut it. I won’t miss that last hour at all, either. I need to be seeing 5h at worst, 4h30 at best.
Bike, I don’t really know the course and BBS hasn’t been a good for guide, so really I just need to settle on a reasonable target power - do I go with last years 176np which felt hard, 190 which could be possible, or ease off a bit? Under 6hrs would be good enough and get me potentially closer to 12h.
Swim, I think another 1h09 is conservative.