Was just looking at some of my old results - first ever marathon was Amsterdam in 2010 - My brother signed me up for it and he came along with a mate. I ran 3:00 & 27 seconds 
His mate was ribbing me all the way home
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Fuck it. In for Brighton, sub 3.30 just call me Anna 
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With more or less tears?
I’m too emotional to hazard a guess. 
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Got to be innit to winnit
Maybe Adidas will send me to Western States
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“Anna liked this post”… 
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Ok, so my worst fears have been realised (I was kind of expecting this). My mate that i signed up to the mara with has officially pulled the pin on his sub 3 attempt. Like i said, i saw it coming, but he’s going to aim for a 3.10/15 instead, which is still very good especially for a first mara. He’s trying to decide whether to risk the sub 3 train, and blow up, or take it at planned pace from the start.
I have 2 other mates that were going to get involved with the sub 3 train. Both are similar runners to me. I’ve not spoken to them yet, but i don’t know if this situation will change their outlook, or if they’ll continue on with 2.59 as the goal.
So that leaves decision time for me. I’m now not wedded to the 2.59 goal, so i can’t hide behind that. But i’m really, really not in proper marathon shape. So what to do?! As i’ve not been training properly for this, with focussed sessions etc i don’t really know what shape i’m in. Push it too far and i’ve got a pointless blow up in November on a really, really crap marathon course that i don’t actually have any emotional investment in. Go too easy, and it feels a bit pointless - though it has got me off my bum and moving more over the last 6-8 weeks than i would have with no sort of goal.
4s seem to be calling me as a round number to aim for. Not too fast, not too slow. I ran 16kms at that pace last week, and it was ok, but harder than i expected it to. Maybe i need to try to fit in a HM at 4s and see how that feels.
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Man up and crush a sub 3 
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What does 4s give you?
General advice ('cos I’m a bloody expert for sure ). if I was your mate looking to go 3.10, no way on earth I’d be started with the 3.00 pacer as that would indicate a ‘bank’ strategy and that very rarely works. Start with the 3.15 pacer and see how he feels half way.
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Yeah but GB is a flying sandbagger who can rock up with no training and do a 17 minute 5k!
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Haha, oh there are no pacers!! This is a really crumby local, charity run mara. The course is horrendous - super contrived around busy cyclepaths/footpaths etc. Up the river, across the river down the river, over the road, back over the river, up the river etc.
We only booked it as it was cheap as chips and good from a date perspective (was 12 weeks away when we booked). I think he knows he needs to start conservatively if he wants a decent time. And he’s already admitted he’s not in sub 3 shape.
Oh sub 3 is happening (well it’ll be attempted at the very least). We know this is basically 4.15s (or is it 4.16s).
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In that case, I’d just hang on to anyone that knew where they were going.
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Now, I’m a shite runner so the last person to take advice from, but that would be a 5 minute negative split. You’d be going out at 3:15 pace and coming back at 3:05 pace. Seems like too much of a difference to be an efficient strategy, if you were seriously aiming for 3:10?
Oh sorry i think that was my bad explanation.
I’m now disowning him and letting him do his own thing. Whether he wants to go out at 2.59 pace, or 3.10 or whatever … that’s now up to him.
I’m trying to decide what to do now taht i’ve been ‘released’ from duty.
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Sorry, I was replying to @FatPom but it included your quote.
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What’s the worst that could happen? Treat it as I guess what is termed a B or C race. And then take it from there
What was option 3 again?
Do a course recce at sub 3 pace a week before and then come back and we will tell you what time you should be aiming for 
Or just hang with the lead group for as long as you can, before burning them off in the 2nd half?
FWIW, I would say running at a comfortable pace is more important than forcing yourself to deliberately run slow, so do a 20k run at what feels like a comfortable MP but don’t look at your watch until the end and see how close to 4s you were running.
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