Yes, so LCB had the engine and application to make a go of Triathlon at world level.
I can think of someone who went from Std Dist AGer to Kona champ in about a year…I think that would give @tuckngo slightly stronger grounds. But no smoke there afaik.
I don’t think the Germans are over the hill yet. Frodeno is still at the top of his game, Lange is 33, Kienle also still has a few years in him; plus Dreitz & Clavel coming through. UK has quite a few starters in Kona, but won’t match the Hun.
Lange’s chances inversely proportional to wind speed. Surely it won’t be calm 3 years in a row, or is that the new climate norm for Kona in October?
I think I’ve said enough …
Men’s - ze Germans.
Frodo
Keinle
Lange
Ladies
Ryf
Charles
Haug
I think the men’s race will change a lot as people run from far back. Cam Skipper, Sebi & Sanders limit swim damage and then ride to the front? That was supposed to happen last year.
Well, I think we know the most likely scenario is that AB & Frodeno are going to be leading out onto the bike, and will be putting out a pretty hot pace. I guess Wurf will bridge at some point, and it will get interesting from there, as people have to start making tactical decisions.
Is Joe racing? The whole thing about the 12hr TT record was a result of him not being able to run all year, and so just beasting the bike. I struggle to see him turning that around in a couple of months. At least, not to then be competitive on the run.
Correct, I would be surprised if Joe is a factor. But stoked if he does have a good race.
AB’s best race would be to sit on Frodeno. Even then I can’t see him beating Frodo, AB hasn’t run particularly strong on any long distance, Frodo ran away from him at the 70.3 worlds last year. Full distance and in the heat of Kona that is only going to be worse.
I seen Frodeno, Wurf & AB on the men’s podium in some order. Frodeno running both Wurf & AB on the run would be great to see. On the female Ryf to win & LCM 2nd and any one of 3 or 4 for 3rd. Should be a great race.
Yes, he needs to do what it took Mark Allen years to realise…the race is where Frodeno is.
Much like Lucy Charles, he’s young enough to be able to wait it out at this point.
Yep, that would be a sound strategy. We could all be proved wrong. The failure on Sunday could be a blessing in disguise. It might make him realise he does actually need to race smart, and shadowing the best would fit that bill. He has also said he’s going there for “experience”, so maybe he does keep his power dry a little more.
I would like AB to win the men’s race and Anne Haug the women’s. I think Ryf will win (I know it’s a longshot) but think Haug will do better than last year. I think AB swimming upfront will help Frodo stay away from Wurf, Sebi and Sanders for longer, possibly making them ride a bit harder than they otherwise might. I suspect Ali will fade on the run, I wouldn’t be surprisd if Sebi has a really good run, Lange will have too much ground to make up, Wurf doesn’t lead for anywhere near as long as he did last year. Sanders will finish his run with a Micky Flanagan limp-drag (with added grunting) despite that wierd cage thing he has.
LCB seems a bit off this year to me, maybe stalled is a better word, certainly no closer to Ryf. Daylight second and third.
Skipper is racing IM Wales this W/e and has been run training for 5-6 weeks. I guess we’ll see if he has the run to be a factor in Kona.
Agree re AB, if he’d rode the field off his wheel and won last week he wouldn’t have been able to help himself trying the same on Kona.
He can still win Championship races in LC, but needs to deploy his weaponry smarter. Ie front pack on the bike but just doing his turns.
I was thinking the opposite. It looks like Ryf has really turned it up a notch and LCB has gone with her but is still the same distance behind. Ryf’s bike splits have been savage - look at what she did at Alp dHuez triathlon, she won the race overall.
Cody Beals is also my dark horse, I am rooting for him anyhow.
Concur with the comments about the wind playing a factor. Either way I think Wurf has improved the run and swim enough to be somewhere on the podium this year.
With AB there that’s only gonna help Frodo so I’m going
Frodo
Lange
Wurf
Discounting Keinle purely on the basis of a decent run at Nice, and has therefore peaked early 
Currie’s had a decent year again so could well be in the top 5 again.
Sidenote: Should be interesting to seeing the UK grudge match of Joe against Graves at Wales, if it goes to form Graves will try and stay ahead on the bike and DNF the run.
Women’s side can’t argue with the predictions. LCB appears to have upped the bike a bit this year, and looks pretty aero nowadays so predict Rhyfs catch to be a bit later. LCB has also been running well, improved to a 16:30 5k and ~34min 10k. I think though this has spurred Rhyf on.
I think there will be a race to T2 between Graves & McCrystal; Joe will then jog past them as they lie in the gutter on the run.
The mixed bag of mens picks shows how open a field it is, especially for contenders for 3-5 places. My picks are Frodo and Lange to both be up there and that AB won’t be challenging for win. I’d go for Kienle or Wurf for 3rd.
UK has good in house battle with Ali, Mcnamee and Skipper if fit.
Same as everyone else for the women, Ryf to win by around 10 minutes again over LCB. Think LCB is more likely to come 3rd than 1st.