So a month to go, better start the keyboard predictions…
Well this should be a short discussion, surely there’s only one credible suggestion, not sure if anyone has heard of him, I understand they like him on the other side of the Atlantic:
Podium chasers: Brownlee, McNamee, Russell, Beals. No idea how Skipper will do, as he’s been nursing that run injury…although he’s on the startlist for Tenby?
I forgot about LIONel! I reckon he’ll crash & burn.
Ridiculous! He will win. Even of he doesn’t, he’s still the real winner.
(Sorry I thought I was on Slotwitch then.)
Skipper seems to be planning to properly race Tenby.
He’s is in Wales now, definitely doing it. Think he’s trying to build some run form after being out with injury for much of the summer. So maybe hard swim, steady bike, mostly hard run? Who knows.
I think Frodo will win. Keinle second. Don’t think Lange will be there this year. Don’t know why, just have a feeling.
Third is hard . Braden Currie.
Good top 5 battle from those that Jorgan mentioned. Plus Wurf, Aernouts. Probs a few others as well.
Women. Yeah @jorgan says it all. Ryf, LC… Crowley?
Seems about right. Kienle is the big unknown after the weekend. His bike-run really puts him in the mix if he can stay a bit closer on the swim. Frodo is certainly the odds on favourite, having put all his eggs in the Kona basket this year. Lange just seems off the pace, and with a faster running Frodo out front, I feel his cycling will get exposed this year. Wurf really seems to have taken some strides with his running, so if he has another strong swim-bike, and the conditions aren’t so favourable to the pure runners like Lange and McNamee, then I have a feeling he might be able to hold on better this year to scrape on the podium, as he’d have more of a gap and the others will have had to go deeper to stay in touch.
I just can’t see AB achieving much first time out. Sunday showed he has a lot to learn with respect to long course, and his Cork race didn’t inspire me from a nutrition standpoint.
Haug probably gets in there again. Noone else immediately springs to mind. Copenhagen indicated she was over her run problems. She only needed to finish to validate, and yet still ran a 2:57
Yeah good call on Haug.
I think there’s the ‘danger’ he’ll try and go with Wurf and implode big time on the run. He does indeed need to temper his competitive spirit over the longer distances. It will be interesting to see the dynamic on the bike with AB & Frodo in play this year. Do they go with Wurf, or ride a more calculating race.
Am I right in thinking Wurf has upped his swim too, so unlikely he will pull along the ‘biker pack’ after the swim with Kienle/Sanders/Skipper etc.
Cam Wurf & Ryf.
I think Wurf is getting better all round every year and like the fact that it pisses off ST so much. Lionel will try and smash it and crash and burn. I think the era of the Germans is over, but we will see.
Can’t see anyone touching Ryf unless she has a genuine bad day. Lucy Charles is totally over rated because she’s marketable (blond and wears make up) and is very good at the bit in the water.
Why do you hate the Germans and Lucy so much?
He’d broadly upped it for last year. He swam 50:xx to come out with the main second pack. Last year though, there was no-one really in that front pack that could hurt him on the bike, or live with him once he caught up. Frodo changes that dynamic. It’s all about whether he can maintain his run improvement in the conditions of Kona. He’s run 2x 2:50 this year (IM Aus and Roth), which would be a dramatic improvement from the 3:06 of Kona last year. Even just a 10 minute improvement in that, so 2:56, would have had him pip McNamee.
I cannot see how LucyCB is over rated?
She has gone from not being able to ride a bike, doing IMUK in about 11 hours, to being a multiple world champion.
I think you need to go sit in the corner for a while.
You will be saying Chrissie and Macca were over rated next.
I have no beef with the Germans at all, I just think their time is coming to an end, and unlike Ryf they have all shown chinks in their armour.
LC because she did a local event near me before she became known and strutted around like queen of the queen bees, and that was before the start. Not an endearing attitude.
I’ve heard similar before, so I can fully believe you are correct.
That said, being unlikeable is independent of whether you are actually any good!
I conveniently missed out the bit about her being a former near Olympic level swimmer…or are you implying something else.
I can see why youd have beef with your previous experience.
That would leave a sour taste.
Tim Don once did Ashbourne Duathlon and stayed around chatting afterwards.
I also racked next to James Cracknell at Clumber Duathlon, he was super nervous and very nice.
Frodeno has to be the favourite. Kienle had a great run in Nice so he should be up there. I think debutant Cody Beals could be a dark horse bet. Cam Wurf to maybe tickle the top 5. I don’t expect AB to be in the top 10 but would be happy to be proved wrong!
Hard to see anyone get near Ryf unless she has a shocker. LCB 2nd again probably. Haug, Cheetham, Phillip to round off the top 5 (no particular order)
I should have said “why do you hate…”