Just looking at Ironman schedule for 2020, one thing that really stands out is how busy 12 July is:
On the same day there is IM UK, IM Switzerland, IM Vitoria Gasteiz, and Challenge Roth.
This must make it one of the best days to attempt a KQ effort… I am guessing that Bolton or Switzerland (because it is new) will be the ones to target
If you’ve thought that, chances are a lot of others have too! There’s no such thing as an easy KQ in our AG.
I know a guy who went >12h in Hamburg this year, and has posted on his FB that next year in Tallinn he hopes to go sub-10, and also to KQ 
Of course, he’ll need to go well under 10 to KQ in M45, especially on what’s a short course.
I get the feeling that Hamburg may have been a little soft this year, it rolled down to 9th place, I think that it was 9mins faster than my time, well within my reach, with a better swim. Unfortunately looking at other events, like Italy or Copenhagen, after taking into account the extra 6km bike, I think that KQ at Hamburg was still 10mins slower than one would expect… although I hear that Italy swim and run may have been short
I think that was me a couple of years ago… clueless
Bolton would probably be the one, especially for a strong biker.
Jeff
There are very few people who can go from doing a 12:xx trained to sub 10.
What was your first IM, CH last year, and you weren’t close to 12 were you?
Bolton will be rammed this year, with KQ hunters.
The slots rolled deep (!) this year, right?
People will see the “slow” times and be wanting some of that action.
Plus, looks like it is going to a Pro-free race again, so someone might fancy themselves to win the thing…
…I mean, how cool is it to say you’ve come Top 25 in an IM race? @Chriswim 
Yeah, I agree. Tough course and undesirable location (relatively). Plus it rolled deep this year. Against two new/newish races.
Italy run looked 0.5-0.75 miles short from friends Stravas who did it this year
There is, but mostly in hindsight. Theres little way of accurately predicting which races will be soft qualifiers as only takes couple of people to enter/not enter and suddenly theres a large swing in times, plus the lottery of rolldowns.
^ that said ^, yes i expect Bolton will be tougher this year. I think last year was soft, or at least, plenty of bikers will think it was and back themselves to go 6hrs. Whether thats right I dont know, I have no experience to compare it to. I knew I would ride 6:30 from recce and wrongly ssumed there would be lots of people flying past me as usual. Dont have power data etc.
Plus the bad press before the race last year put people off entering, which I think has been corrected.
As for that @Poet, im just in awe of teammates who won Ireland non-pros and another 4th at UK. Makes you wonder…
I don’t think hindsight & luck qualifies as ‘easy’ 
I know of one lady who has a detailed spreadsheet of all the major competitors in her AG, what races they have entered and whether they have Kona Places. Clearly someone can come up through the ranks, but it is possible to add some science to reduce the uncertainty
But she has to know what events they have entered! How do you do that if you’re in a Male AG between 30-60?
Funny you should say that…
…I am working on a WebApp to try and do something similar…
Pretty basic at the minute, no styling or anything in it.
I want to have the ability to drill down on a name to see: where they’ve raced, when, how they have improved and where they qualified.
ObsTri has something similar - but I cannot see how to compare athletes?
You can compare races, but have to select a division…
…the charts he has are pretty good (stats tab)
https://www.obstri.com/?search=“David%20Mantle”
Then there is Coach Cox’s site:
https://www.coachcox.co.uk/ironman-world-championship-qualification/
Which is, to me, the apex of analysis - though not dynamic.
Web scraper.
Or manually check entrant lists and update a spreadsheet
I’m not fast enough to worry about that sh!t!
If you are in a category with only 1 slot - so most of the women - almost worth coordinating your race calendar with known competitors. I’m sure towards the older agegroups the front packers have been racing each other long enough to know who’s who.
I’d be target testing that Dave Mantle bloke - he might be a yoootoob sensation now but that looks like a suspicious progression. Probably works with Salazar?
Probably ordering drugs against the business and then laundering them from there!
