If you’ve thought that, chances are a lot of others have too! There’s no such thing as an easy KQ in our AG.
I know a guy who went >12h in Hamburg this year, and has posted on his FB that next year in Tallinn he hopes to go sub-10, and also to KQ Of course, he’ll need to go well under 10 to KQ in M45, especially on what’s a short course.
I get the feeling that Hamburg may have been a little soft this year, it rolled down to 9th place, I think that it was 9mins faster than my time, well within my reach, with a better swim. Unfortunately looking at other events, like Italy or Copenhagen, after taking into account the extra 6km bike, I think that KQ at Hamburg was still 10mins slower than one would expect… although I hear that Italy swim and run may have been short
There is, but mostly in hindsight. Theres little way of accurately predicting which races will be soft qualifiers as only takes couple of people to enter/not enter and suddenly theres a large swing in times, plus the lottery of rolldowns.
^ that said ^, yes i expect Bolton will be tougher this year. I think last year was soft, or at least, plenty of bikers will think it was and back themselves to go 6hrs. Whether thats right I dont know, I have no experience to compare it to. I knew I would ride 6:30 from recce and wrongly ssumed there would be lots of people flying past me as usual. Dont have power data etc.
Plus the bad press before the race last year put people off entering, which I think has been corrected.
As for that @Poet, im just in awe of teammates who won Ireland non-pros and another 4th at UK. Makes you wonder…
I know of one lady who has a detailed spreadsheet of all the major competitors in her AG, what races they have entered and whether they have Kona Places. Clearly someone can come up through the ranks, but it is possible to add some science to reduce the uncertainty
If you are in a category with only 1 slot - so most of the women - almost worth coordinating your race calendar with known competitors. I’m sure towards the older agegroups the front packers have been racing each other long enough to know who’s who.