Only selected him as I know he did the same race for years in a row and has also done Staffs (which is what I want to look at)…you should see his Austria 2007 result 
PAGING @chickenboy
(Let us not talk about him behind his back, now!)
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The PRO category quite blatantly do this, too.
They avoid each other all season, scooping up the Top 3 prize purse, rarely seeing one another until The Big Showdown.
This is one of the only sports I know of where this happens.
Dont target Challenge Roth for a Kona spot, its the weekend before too 5th July. But yes 3 events all same day and quite late for getting the logistics sorted to be heading to Kona. Surely Switzerland is your one Matt.
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If you are serious about going to Kona, then it might be worth booking the trip now - even if you don’t qualify, you can head out there for a holiday and get a feel for the island and the course, etc.
Then, when you do qualify, there’ll be an uncertainty taken out of it.
I am doing Roth (slightly embarrassed I got the date wrong), 3rd time I tried to enter and I got a place. Would have liked to do the new IM Switzerland course. I am having one shot of KQ next year and that is in Lanzarote, I’ve got some big mountains in my legs this year, need to maintain that over the winter and work really hard on my weight
Great Matt see you in Roth! Lanza is great, hot windy hilly some grippy out and back bike sections, punishing run out around the airport. “If you can make it there, you will make it anywhere”
Ok maybe dispute in wording whether “easy” , but my point is there are some soft results that end up being offered Kona places.
Maybe females with much smaller fields can, and yes obviously the pros do it, but for males under ~55/60 I think theres too much uncertainty to make it worth the effort of tracking individuals.
Check coachcox analysis, and then if you know you can match/beat the average of the last place slots you know if its realistic to go for it.
After that you race your best on the day and hope its enough.
There’s a bloke on slowtwitch that produces spreadsheets of most of the US Ironman’s and includes if they’ve already qualified I think, or have done Kona before.
His psych sheets.
He scrapes a lot of results and start lists
Jeff
The psych sheets are great but only prepared once the race is pretty full. You’d have to hold your nerve, have flexibility and hope the race doesn’t sell out.
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My logic is:
I am small, therefore wind shouldn’t effect me as much as big riders
Bike is an hour longer than some of the fast flat courses, this is an extra hour where I can eat into my swim deficit
I can climb, and as I discovered in Nice, I can descend faster than many triathletes
Downside:
It’s and early KQ race, not many roll downs
I suspect Lanza attracts many other people whose strengths match mine
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But that will be the same at any course. The flatties will target the flats etc etc. The crux of the matter is it’s flipin hard to KQ. If you’re there or thereabouts (in the 5th -15th range), then obvously choose a course that suits, execute on the day and then hope luck shines down on you. I think being triathletes it is too easy to over analyse on this particular matter. The fact is you don’t know who will turn up, you don’t know if the swim will be cancelled for fog or chop or algae or riptides, you don’t know whether it will rain and you don’t know how hot it will be.
If you’re good enough pick the course that works for you, train bloody hard and get out there and smash it. There’s plenty of alternative minutiae that you can get stuck into (like length of socks, looking at your stems, how to hide your motor etc). It’s wasted energy in my opinion.
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I find the stress of KQing is pretty much totally negated by being sh1t 
I move up to 50-54 next year, it won’t make any difference.
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Cheers 
Decent resource, that - but it’s near to as identical to what I wanted to build CRYING
Haha, stalksville!
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There’s also this one: https://www.endurance-data.com/en/
I find this second one good as it even shows you graphs with all the timing mat splits, so you can see how people around you went as the race progressed. For example:
You can see how I very nearly lost my last slot to the guy in yellow who was coming on strong…
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i actualy died in Austria 
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Another interesting one from Nice, showing the difference between Matt and Dave in the TT v roadie debate. Seems they both matched each other pretty much exactly once the climbing was done, but Matt recovered most of his swim deficit on the early section of false flat
I’d actually forgotten about this second site until your post reminded me about it. It’s actually quite powerful
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DOUBLE BASTARD!
Yup…been pissing around with doing stuff like that, too 
It is all super simple to do the bare bones, it’s just loading the damn data up somewhere …
But then getting the CSS all nice is the hard part!
Cheers for those links - I never knew they existed!