Kona 25

1 week out. Are we going to have a bit of a bash at the top 5 then?

I’ve just downloaded Thorsten’s report, as i’ve not quite been as hot on the pro game this season. So i’ll have a bit of a read and see what I think.

Initial thoughts, having not done the research to back it up …

  • Magnus has been quiet
  • Rudy VB went well in Nice last time, seems to have been pretty quiet too
  • Iden has been doing better, but not getting the feeling that he’s WC better yet
  • Blum has to be up there - assuming he’d have gone deep in learning what went wrong as he vommed his way around Kona last year
  • Lange still seems hungry. Wasn’t it a pretty big bike pack last time in Nice, bar Laidlow who just bombed it off the front on the top of that plateau?
  • Anyone else? Stornes - WC rookie. Baekegaard - quiet year. Hogenhaug has had a good season.
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Nah, TC is going to stun them all coming last out of the med and pedalling and running through the field in denim shorts :joy:

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Schomberg and Van Riel will be interesting rookies too!

No idea who Zack Cooper is. GB male. But you’ve also got Harry Palmer Kieran Lindars and Skipper for the UK.

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I think Lindars has had some good form and under the radar, I’ll need to see the start list. How many are near the top of pro series?

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am a huge skipper fan and i know jack shit !!

but getting the feeling his bubble has burst

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I think top 30 is probably the best he can hope for these days.

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He came 9th in Roth and 4th in Copenhagen.

He’s on the TTL devo team (That Triathlon Life)

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His last okay result was IM New Zealand where he came 2nd. Think that is where he qualified, his best since was 11th in Roth. No other results to speak of. Think he was 5th the weekend in a 70.3 (I didnt follow that one, saw it on IG)

I really need to follow the Pro scene less.

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A new (to me) Scottish lad won that Belgian race. Skipper has never really featured at 70.3.

I think there are a few Brit males starting to come through now it seems. Whether they’ll be (proper) world class or not we’ll have to wait and see I guess.

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Laidlow?

I’d like to see Blum do well. And Laidlow. A top 5 or close for Cam Wurf I’d also like to see.

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I called Laidlow a bit earlier in the thread. He’s still my gut feel.

  1. Laidlow
  2. Blum
  3. Schomberg
  4. Ditlev
  5. Lange

I reserve the right to keep shuffling this list all week! :joy: I’ve changed my mind 3 times already.

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I’d possibly swap 1 and 2.

and 3,4,5 to 4,5,3

I’d say Blu, Laidlow and Ditlev are still the strongest three but none are a shoe in. The top end is so close they all throw caution to the wind at WC, so it’s almost more about who can manage that fine line and avoid collapsing than who is the fittest. If all three get it wrong there will be no mercy as the rest of the field are so strong.

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He’ll whip it !

Though not sure those helmets are very aero:

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Daniel Baekkegard is looking lean & has been a bit under radar lately hoping he gets a top 10

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It’s touch and go whether I make it onto the run course before the leaders finish. Would love to be passed by the leaders going onto their last lap as I start my first lap of the run

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I presume being M50 they’ll have something like an hour head start on you? What’s your bike plan, about 5:30? It will be touch and go depending on that and I’d half expect a non-wetsuit swim? It was for us 2 years ago.

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Water temp in Nice has been hovering between 24 and 25 degrees (currently 24.2, yesterday evening 24.8), 2 weeks ago it was 27. It’s really marginal for wetsuits, I think that pros will be non wetsuit AGs 50:50. I would prefer non wetsuit, my swim pace is pretty much the same with and without, while most people are slower without wetsuit.

I am aiming sub 6 hours on the bike. 5:30 would be a top 10 time, I would be delighted with 5:45

I have abolutely no idea what I will do on the run, I have not done much running, however, when I have run, my pace has been much better than expected - 3h30 is best case, 3h45 would be a good result

It could be a hot race, maybe as high as 27-28 degrees, for me the hotter the better, 40 would be perfect

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I’ve not been so excited about an IM for a long time. My swim wont be great, but expect a lot of Maurten moves on the bike.

In true IMJ fasion I have ridden my TT bike exactly 46km since IM Cascais last November. I think I will post this on IMJ later today

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Come on then … let’s have some more predictions.

The Norwegians and Sam are already starting the mind games in the various interviews. Gustav is going to run sub 2.30 on Sunday, so he says.

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