In the ITU worlds, my bike IF was 89% and run IF was 97%. On that one, which was pretty hilly and technical bike course, my average speed was 36.5kph.
In comparison, at the Zyterm triathlon, my average speed was 42kph with an IF of 85%.
My bike split in Zyterm was 8m30s quicker than the ITU, even though IF was lower. So even with weight loss, I think that Eastbourne will be tough to get a PB
The first Tri where I did the bike sub 1hr (2016) was Dorney lake https://humanrace.co.uk/event/dorney-lakes-season-pass/
Totally flat bike, totally flat run (on that occasion the swim was cancelled due to algae). I just looked at my result, and the bike looked a little short as I averaged 37.5kph, however, At the time I weighed around 78kg, FTP was around 255, 10k pb was 44mins, and I had never done a HIM, or even run a HM.
Dorney should be good for a PB as Transition is right right on the swim exit with no distance to the bike or run course. Its as boring as hell, but no cars to worry about, and if I remember well, just one tight chicane on each of the 8 laps
Westminster was my fastest as well. Never did the Tower Bridge route which was the fastest one judging by people i know who had done both. Do they still do that route? The Saturday is a boring back and forth multiple times out the front of the centre.
I think the course will have the biggest influence over your best case time for an Olympic Distance
Swim – lake, river or sea. Depending on currents and swell, could add 5min to your expected time
Bike – obviously hills and dead turns. But also how accurate is the course? In my experience many events just fit a roughly 40K loop in, and it could easily be a few km long or short.
Run – often off road, could be hilly, usually more accurate as they can easily add in out and back sections with dead turns.
Transitions – in smaller events you can be through transition in under 60sec, but if racking isn’t near the water or transition is big it can easily be 2 or 3min.
My 2 Olympic’s from last year, for reference, not willy waving
Wetherby
Swim (1400M) - 26:30 - it’s a river swim and a bit slow upstream, also very cold and first O\W swim of the year!
Bike - (40K) - 1:14:30 - this was on a road bike with AP@240W, also included T2 due to user error!
Run - (10k) - 43:23 - this started on a grass field and is mostly on old railway\flat pack, it was fairly dry but I’d had about 9 weeks with hardly any running after getting injured at the ultra
Total time was 2:29:xx - T1 was nearly 5 minutes as I was putting some warm clothes on!
Ripon
Swim (1500M) - 29:00 - this is a horrible swim with lots of reeds and I had a lot of goggle problems
Bike (42k) - 1:09 - a few digs and twisty roads, AP/NP 242/251, TT bike
Run (10.2k) - 45 - slightly long, and sections on grass or track.
Total - 2:26
This was actually a better perfomance than the time suggests, it was baking hot and people were exploding on the run, only 6 people broke 42 minutes on the run, even Phil Graves and Bri Fogarty didn’t get under.
Being poor at swimming and T1 really sets me back in these races.
I wonder if I can get sub 2:20 on a better day, although if the bike and run at Ripon were accurate I’d be a bit closer.
I guess some experimentation needed on my part, see how much 0.95IF over a virtual 40k impacts my 5 or 10k vs 0.9. Much more practical/achievable to try out than Iron distance stuff anyway.
All this talk is making me think about doing an Oly again and going for a PB. Might be a pretty tough ask given my current start point but you dont known if you dont tri (see what I did there…I thank you)
What’s the last open water oly in the UK, preferably a flat one?
There’s one in the Cotswolds that they run in July & September (Saturday & Sunday too) that I’ve been looking at but it’s only a 9km run.
I’m looking at a sub-3 (2:30 isn’t an option) so would seriously consider running straight through the finish for a 500m out & back if it was on the cards.