OK… lets get some of the TT collective’s views…
Your winner for 2020 and the one to watch as an outside chance
Winner: Pinot
Outside chance: Quintana
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Oh man, I was just going to jump on here and shout:
“No, you’re wrong, Thibaut will win…”
…then I read what you’ve posted 
He looked imperious last year and would’ve won had it not been for his thigh injury.
He has looked brilliant in the lead up races, without showing his true hand, or being totally naff!
Maybe TJV showed their hand too much?
Maybe Ineos did a massive bluff, or are just plain crap this season?
I also agree that Nairo is a different (well, his previous self!) rider since his switch to Arkea-Samsic, or…
…are you saying that his brother has an outside chance?
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hee hee…
Lots of people watching and thinking are the organisers making a mistake here in running this?.. maybe… just maybe they are… but if a Frenchman were to win… well, that could get interesting!
and yep… Nairo looks to be back to his old self… and its just whether Arkea-Samsic have the quality in depth to support him… but he could well excel on this course
There’d be plenty of social distancing going on in Paris!
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God knows what’s going to happen with Covid, but if some fall by the wayside…
Pick: Roglic
Dark Horse: Carapaz
Even Darker Horse: Porte
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I really like the idea of Carapaz as a dark horse. I would love Pinot to win it as he is just a fantastic bike rider to watch in action.
But here are my official podium picks:
1: Carapaz
2: Pogacar
3: Buchmann
Okay, now for my logic: Dumoulin early on has to domestic for Roglic, thus losing time. Injury forces Roglic out and Dumoulin is too far back in GC to make up the ground, but looks imperious. Quintana is on fire, then suddenly has one of those off days he gets and loses 5 minutes. Bernal is so thoroughly and brutally beaten up by JV on the first week, with a somewhat weaker team to support him, but he is hanging in there. Carapaz is sent up the road one day, for Bernal to try and bridge across later, but Bernal does not have the legs and Carapaz is given the all clear to go for it. He seizes the moment and pulls a lead out that snatches him the yellow. From that moment on, Bernal plays super domestique. Pogacar is rip roaring the entire time, like an Alaphilippe of 2019, setting the tour on fire, grabbing a few stages, and attracting the attention of everyone. Buchmann just slowly shells all the other GC contenders through the Tour, and the only failure is that the team was set up to support a split ambition of Green and GC, otherwise maybe he could have snatched it. One too many days isolated alone, but all is forgiven on the penultimate stage when Sagan tows Buchmann for 50km to tee him up for the gains he needs to snatch that final podium spot.
I can dream…
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You can dream, I have a nightmare…
End of a brilliant first week, and a couple of riders test positive for Covid. It’s obvious they have ridden for some days in the peloton while infectious.
More positive tests follow, a couple of teams are excluded from the race, but it soon becomes obvious that it has got a proper hold in the peloton.
Abandoned.
Hope I’m wrong, and worrying unnecessarily. I think it’s all or nothing - if they can keep all teams Covid free then fine. But one breach and I fear the whole house of cards will come down.
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That’ll be the first time ever testing has worked
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Tommy Voeckler for the win
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Bernal
Pinot
Roglic
Would indeed be extremely popular. And somewhat of a surprise for the organisers and teams… and indeed Tommy himself!
i know it’s a horrible thought, but i’'m with you Tro. I just can’t see people paying attention to the advice not to go and watch it. Big crowds on the roads etc. Are the French police really geared up/have the will to deal with that. But then you have the fact that their response is going to be beamed internationally for hours and hours every single day. I really hope the race doesn’t become a sideshow though.
I have managed to miss all the build up (Dauphine etc) so finding it a little tricky. I don’t think it’ll be Bernal though. That’s as far as i can go right now
So i’ll take a stab at:
Pinot
Bernal
Roglic
with Bachmann, Pogacar and Carapaz in 4-6 (in some order)
Not exactly swaying from convention in that choice, but there we go.
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I think the winner will come from Roglic or Bernal. I would love Quintana to win but don’t think he is in the form he was at the start of the season. Failing that, I want Pinot to win, his carrer has been a great drama IMO, his fear of descending to his knee injury. Dark horse would be Carapaz.
Next year Alpecin-Fenix will be invited and MvdP will solo off from the first stage and win by hours.
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Roglic.
Remember he has the TT stage at the end.
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I’m way off the pace with the cycling these days. i would also like to see Pinot pull it off. I cant see the issue with Covid in the spectators assuming they arent allowed to have finish line crowds ? I guess incidence in the peloton is far more likely to cause abandonment but as Poet mentioned… surely they have the expertise to ensure they give covid-free the samples ???
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By wafting the swabs somewhere vaguely near the rider and then sending them off as throat/nose swabs?
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Perfect season for some riders to have “prepared” differently to others.
I fully expect we will see some things that may be surprising to the commentators…
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Will listen out for Sean Kelly to quickly change the subject 
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In fairness, he usually struggles to get a word in edgeways with Carlton Kirby to start with…
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“Remember that farm we stopped at on the way here Sean? That lovely sheep’s milk cheese was superb… and the local white was a really pleasant surprise…” All the while an attack is going off the front and SK is trying to talk about it
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