A small frame bag or bar bag is fine. Then in my pockets I have my usual food, spare tubes etc. @gingerbongo Anker is a make of power pack. Pretty small and lightweight. I use it to charge my Garmin when I stop (mine’s an old 800 and when using route finding gps, the battery drains pretty quickly.) All stuff I picked up when audaxing
Forecasting and modeling. Different sites use the data on different ways, including the area in which they are operating. For example, the Met Office are looking to get a new super computer that will halve the square that they forecast against. I don’t recall the exact measurements, but something like 10m sq to under 5.
Even within the same sites, they use different models (which is stupid). For example the overall Met Office summaries, forecasts it sells, satellite obs and forecasts are more accurate than the app forecast for your given location. Something to do with management of processing power. So the app locations draw from a simplified version of the data. I don’t recall the exact reasons, but I can find out if it is of interest.
I guessed that when I re read it.
I’ve got a crap power pack that my bil got me for Xmas as my old one stopped holding charge for some reason.
Yeah, that makes sense - but one would think that now most weather data and forecasts would be reasonably similar?
Anyhow…back to training:
I’m riding 252km tomorrow as yet another warm up ride to the main event:
0530 ish start aiming for 25kmh moving speed, ~12 hours total time.
Looks dry heading west to Beeston/Bunbury with a tailwind, then headwind from there to Congleton…
…then it looks like I am in the rain from Congleton to Matlock(ish) then back to Flash, it then appears to be dry for the final furlong!
… which is?
Yes what’s the Main Event? Coast-to-Coast?
GBDuro!!
323km.
It’s “only” another three hours over 252km
It’s quite doable from 5am - 8:30pm
But, I need Wales to open its borders first.
But, let’s see how tomorrow goes.
I’ve already quit it once due to weather
“Coast-to-Coast? “
I toyed with Barmouth to Boston (Lincs), but it’s hard for me to get there at the minute, with trains and masks etc.
Grimsby to Southport is only 150 miles
Road to Sky with 2 x AdZ
57km, 3hr45, 2,102 mtrs, 152 av watts
FARRK, screw Everesting.
Frankly, I think you already have a screw loose! That Tron bike is going to look good though. What colour will you go for? I’m defo going blue a la Luke Skywalker.
My sister who hates sport but loves coming to races, says I’m ‘not well’
I don’t know about colour, I hadn’t given it much thought. Can you view them in the garage?
Hey I stole your excellent tip of having a shower during the final descent. What a time saver!
The only hassle with climbing lots is that the levels takes ages to pass.
When you return to your laptop, there are usually a few other stationary riders with the same idea!
Biggest single ride I did was 226km back in 2014 as part of big 10 days
7:46hrs moving time.
One small 5 minute stop then one 30 minute at about 165km as I was bonking and needed food.
Just took 2 loops I used normally and stuck them together, so if there was any issues I was on familiar ground
Ran a bit earlier this morning as I had my first proper class in 3 months
6 students in the class and 2 on video call.
Worked ok, but it’s not something I want to do forever
Got another tomorrow and then the same for the next two weeks
6.22 miles
47:06
7:34 pace
127HR (a little high but very consistent)
This is good timing, as only yesterday I watched a film on YT and I’m pretty sure is EF Racing. 2 of them did a 200mile ride from Colorado to Kansas. (I think same weekend as DK would have been).
It was on my TV’s YT feed but Im buggered if I can see it now.
It’s also to do with macro versus micro forecasting. It’s over a decade ago now that the Met Office pitched MSc dissertation projects to my year group, but the brief overview they provided at that time was all about the “cubes of space” that they model necessarily being different depending on whether you are forecasting for the whole of the UK or a local town.
The former will use “big cubes” and give you good ability to factor in the impacts of wider weather patterns coming from further afield, but you lose accuracy at the more local level. Computing power then restricts how big an area you can cover if you focus on smaller cubes in a more localised setting. The available computing power is obviously always evolving. But the general principle (akin to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in my mind) will always be there.
As for why different sites have different outcomes, on the macro scale they’re often fairly similar. On the localised scale it will vary more, simply because of what level of granularity they are working to, and ultimately it is all about trying to predict largely random meteorological interactions and outcomes. Like predicting share prices.
As I say, the above is based on information I was presented with a decade ago, but I can’t imagine the fundamental principles, and constraints, associated with weather forecasting have changed much. Just that they can now analyse more data at a finer level, in each situation and so the general process improves. The relative constraints will probably stay similar though.
Yep, what he said!
That’s the much more technical version of the point that I was trying to make.
The UK is also seriously difficult to forecast owing to a number (I think it was 7) distinctly different weather influences, as well as being an island. Thing the Siberian NEs, gulf stream, Saharan based Southerlies etc. Unlike somewhere like Spain that, on the whole, is much more predictable.
But you end up in Boston no one needs that.
With the added bonus of leaving Grimsby
On reflection, I’m not sure this ‘Tron bike by end of June’ is a great idea. I’m emptying the fridge each day faster than we can fill it.