Thanks. Let’s hope they have a good crack at clearing it.
I do love me a fast long distance duathlon…!
You KNOW it’s coming…
complete waste of time. !!
If its a non swim I will have a real dilema, my aim is for sub 10 hr IM… however, no swim, it just doesn’t count. However, no swim gives me a better shot at a Kona slot… but I didn’t really want to do a KQ attempt this year, but should the opportunity present itself then I need to go for it.
I would much prefer the swim to go ahead as planned
Isn’t ITU racing in that water this weekend? Surely they will make sure it’s clear for that.
If it is non swim… At all!
Will they run a small …split em up… Du ( 5?k)
Or tt start like Cork?
NWS may scupper some heavy legged Uber bikers, it’s not the time you loose it’s the legs you use…
I’m only jel… Boltons forecast drizzle…nightmare…!
I think the most likely scenarios at the moment are:
- No swim (50/50)
- Wetsuit swim (50/50)
- Non wetsuit swim - very unlikely (weather is cooler now & warm water = algae anyway)
As said earlier, they will have a ‘short run’ before the bike if the swim is canx. I am going to get screenshots of the water measurements for this weekend for the WTS event, in case I need to call Ironman out in a few weeks…
@Matthew_Spooner is hoping for a swim, so he doesn’t KQ by accident 
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That short run was 6km last year.
Well, hopefully he’s really been working on his weaknesses that were identified at Elsinore?
“Anyone wanting to qualify for a big event like the World Championship or Kona take note: I was 7s behind 18th, who was 5s behind 17th, who was 20s behind 16th, who was 20s behind 15th. Every second counts, YOU DON’T HAVE TIME FOR A SINGLE WASTED SECOND.
My swim is still my weakness…my total transition time was…42s slower than the best in my AG, that would have moved me up 3 places…I think that there is still a little to improve on my run, looking at others around me, I should be targeting around 1h27m.”
And been reading Coach Cox’s excellent analysis?
https://www.coachcox.co.uk/2018/08/02/ironman-hamburg-2018-age-group-results-and-kona-qualification/
Final KQ in M45-49 last year did 9:05:57, there were five slots on M45-49.
Opening run of 44 mins (for 6km!?!)
3s short of 5hr bike
3:13:36 marathon 
which is smoking fast!
On your link it says the final KQ was 8:36. Swim or no swim, to be in the top 4-5 in M45 is going to take a prodigious performance; likely with a bit of wheel sucking and who knows what else.
I don’t think I’d look to run a first 6km faster than about 4:20km, because you know…it’s a long way after that. Unless you’re hoping to KQ, then the duathlon becomes almost meaningless tbh, it’s just about going through the motions because you trained lots and paid lots to be there (at least from my perspective). I really CGAF what position I am in my AG, I’m more interested in doing myself justice; just my heart won’t be in it so much for a duathlon - the sport of shit swimmers.
I hope to have a more positive disposition once I’m out there ‘racing’ anyway, if it’s a Duathlon. It will be a new course, and lots of other like minded people to meet on the way 
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Predicted. Then click through to the analysis link at the bottom - nice 45+ page PDF with actuals.
Ah right. My office browser blocked that anyway.
I’ve been told that I do not have permission to qualify for Kona. But my only (vaguely) realistic chance will be if the event is NWS. My cycling is about as good as it is ever going to be and my run seems reasonable at the moment; Therefore if Hamburg is NWS, I know I will give it a go, and if by some miracle I do KQ, then the level of grief I am going to get at home will be significant.
If it goes ahead with the swim, I’ve no chance of KQ, but would be nice to attempt sub 10h
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You will easily go sub10 if you’re sensible on the bike 
I thought ‘NWS’ meant Non Wetsuit, but you mean Powerman Hamburg is better for you.
I meant Non Swim, not NWS.
I probably would be better at Duathlon, but I enjoy Tri’s… it is not as if I am a bad swimmer, normally in top 20%, just not as good a swimmer as I am a Cyclist or runner (roughly top 3% on bike, top 8% run, top 20% swim)
Along with my training motivation 
Probably cutting out some of the fluff sessions next week.
Jeff
What’s wrong Jazzy Jeff, just worn down, mojo, both?
I had noticed you not being on the Strava Leaderboard - not that it matters, but did wonder at this juncture. Obviously @Matthew_Spooner is not top of the pops because he’s fooked from all the races 
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Looking at last year’s results, the sheer number of sub-5h bike splits in the top 100 M45 finishers does make you wonder…I guess a 6km run doesn’t split people up like a 3.8km swim does.
If you look at the 2017 results, most of the top-20 in M45 were over 5h 
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